MPE CDT Student Cohort 2017

Elena Saggioro

Based at: University of Reading

Niraj Agarwal

Based at: Imperial College London

Mariana Clare

Based at: Imperial College London

George Chappelle

Based at: Imperial College London

Stuart Patching

Based at: Imperial College London

Louis Sharrock

Based at: Imperial College London

Adriaan Hilbers

Based at: Imperial College London

Georgios Sialounas

Based at: University of Reading

Alexander Alecio

Based at: Imperial College London

Rhys Leighton Thompson

Based at: University of Reading

Manuel Santos

Based at: University of Reading

Leonardo Ripoli

Based at: University of Reading

Ben Ashby

Based at: University of Reading

Ieva Dauzickaite

Based at: University of Reading

Sebastiano Roncoroni

Based at: University of Reading

Marco Cucchi

Based at: University of Reading
Research project: Sensitivity of Extremes in Simplified Models of the Mid-latitude Atmospheric Circulation
MPE CDT Aligned student

Supervisors: Valerio Lucarini (lead supervisor) and Tobias Kuna

Project Abstract: In this project I’m going to investigate extreme events in simplified atmospheric models of the mid-latitudes using the point of view of Extreme Value Theory (EVT; Coles 2001). The idea here is to extend the work Felici et al. (2007a, 2007b), where it was first shown that EVT can be used to look at extremes generated by an atmospheric model, going beyond the diagnostic analysis, and taking advantage of the theoretical framework presented in Lucarini et al. (2016). I’m going to investigate the properties of extremes of observables where different levels of spatial and temporal coarse graining procedures are performed, so to understand the effect of averaging on our estimates of extremes. Additionally, statistics of extremes of coarse grained fields will be compared with what obtained running models with coarser resolution. Finally, I will investigate the response of the extremes to both time-independent and dependent perturbations affecting the dynamics, using response theory and pullback attractors. Throughout this work both deterministic and stochastic perturbations will be investigated, and results will be used for model error assessment and analysis of multiscale effects.
As a practical application, this work will lead to the definition of functions describing societal and economic impact of extreme climatic events, along with financial and insurance tools able to manage time-dependent risk assessment.

Jennifer Israelsson

Based at: University of Reading